Advanced GET Trading Blog: Highly Skilled & Out of Work

As noted By Michael A. Fletcher in the

on Mon., Jan. 21, 2008

"An unusually large share of workers have been out a job for more than six months even as overall unemployment has remained low, a little-noted weakness in the labor market that analysts said threatens to intensify the impact of the unfolding economic downturn.

In November, nearly 1.4 million people -- almost one in five of those unemployed -- had been jobless for at least 27 weeks, the juncture when unemployment insurance benefits end for most recipients. That is about twice the level of long-term unemployment before the 2001 recession.

The problem is ensnaring a broader swath of workers than before. Once concentrated among manufacturing workers and those with little work history, education or skills, long-term unemployment is growing most rapidly among white-collar and college-educated workers with long work experience, studies have found, making the problem difficult for policymakers to address even as it grows more urgent.

"What has happened is a polarization of the labor market. It was very strong at the very top and very strong until recently at the bottom," said Lawrence F. Katz, a labor economist at Harvard University. "But in the recent weak recovery, and now recession, demand has been very weak" for jobs in the middle.

Caroline Dixon never contemplated any of that when she resigned in April after nine months as a program officer with the Spina Bifida Association. She left because the job was "a bad fit," and she said she was confident that the economy was strong and she would soon find work. For a long time, she never stopped in the unemployment office on Naylor Road near her Southeast Washington home.

But as weeks out of work stretched into months, Dixon, 41, became a fixture there. Now she can be found there on weekdays, spending untold hours at the heavily used computer bank checking out potential employers, printing job notices and e-mailing her resume. "I jokingly tell people that I'm headed to my office when I'm coming here," she said, without a smile."

The unemployment office could very well become the 'employer' of much more Americans if something does not turn around fast. All along I have been disagreeing with Wall Street's supposed 'Soft-Landing'. Where are the talking heads now?

The S&P Futures are currently down 50, thats right fifty points as we roll into the close of the overnight session this morning. The Dow is down over 400 points. That will make for a major gap down on Tuesday. This is not coincidence as the average person who has their financial investments locked up in their retirement accounts will not be able to respond until the close on Tuesday. That means potentially more selling in tonights non regular trading session.

Two great trades transpired on the 16th and 18th this month on the 60 minute chart of the S&P 500 eMini. Take a look below. (one was approximately a 112.50 point move the other was 78.50. 191 total for those who pyramided into this trade.)

They were two great false bar stochastic sell opportunities. On the grand scheme of things I have been look for a near term low on $SPX to come in at around 1250 on or near 21 January 2008. This is a Gann 15 degree natural angle date. I just returned from doing a seminar and told the attendees that 1250 was highly likely. How about that for accuracy.

In any case, we are now sitting on a key level. Market is right on top of a Fibonacci Expansion level of 2.618. I measured them from the 11th high, 18th low and then 27th high of December 2007. I believe that were are now in Wave 3 of three. We should soon be going into a Wave 4 Consolidation/Distribution pattern. If this 1250 level does not hold we could very well panic into the 1120 level and then move into the Wave 4 only to await the Wave 5 final move.