The S&P 500 ($SPX) is pulling back on the daily. When will it end? Time is one of the most difficult factors to work with in the markets. However, some simplistic number series can be used to give us some points in time to look for near term low/hi to come in. I personally like a combo of Fib and Gann numbers. I typically look for the turn to come in + or - one bar (day in this case). Below is a daily chart of the S&P and I have the the relevant bar counts below. As you can see we are approaching a day 72 (using trading days) from the March low. You can see we turned off off day 55 and 45. I am looking for this market to establish a near term low around this day 72. What kind of bounce will this be? I am not sure yet, but I will be prepared for it to start.
Good Trading
Craig
Craig:
The image is not clear enough for me to "see" that day 45 and 55 are turned off. So I have to ask How do you turn off days? And why did you choose those particular days to turn off?
Posted by: Terry Felter | June 16, 2009 at 04:40 PM
Hi Craig,
Thanks for your comments.
How about the RUT (in GET a type 2 sell). The mob gives me a target of 463 which is also 0.382 retracement of the Jun 09 high maybe on day 90 ?
Thanks
Posted by: anthony | June 16, 2009 at 07:59 PM
Terry,
We formed pivots right at those days. That is how a market "turns" off a point in time. It makes some type of hi/lo.
Craig
Posted by: Craig | June 17, 2009 at 08:29 AM
Anthony,
The RUT is in a similar position to the S&P from a time perspective as it it comming into day 72 on the 19th. The overall pattern though is much weaker than the S&P with that Type 2 and a good 5 wave pattern in place as opposed to the structure in the S&P. I would still look for some kind of pivot around the 19th for the RUT. That does not mean it will take out those wave 5 highs. If your short that one you should have some money on the table so your just in pure money management mode. After the resolution of whatever comes out of here (could be nothing) I would look to that day 90.
Craig
Posted by: Craig | June 17, 2009 at 08:45 AM
Looks like a possible type 1 on a daily basis at 927.10, but we'll see what occurs next week.
Posted by: Terry Felter | June 20, 2009 at 05:20 AM
Have to see Terry, but its a good low risk setup.
Posted by: Craig | June 21, 2009 at 09:28 PM
I didn't mention that we also have a possible type 1 weekly sell at the same time. Now how is that for two different time frames and two different directions.
Posted by: Terry Felter | June 22, 2009 at 04:55 AM
Its not all that uncommon Terry. One reason I was looking at smaller timeframes and turning points in time. That helps with risk mitigation. My DBA got stopped out this morning as well. That is trading.
Posted by: Craig | June 22, 2009 at 07:05 AM
Hi Craig, appreciate your input. But looks like in weekly chart of spx, both type 1 and stoch sell triggered today, although it is just the begining of this week. Would like to know what you think.Thnx.
Posted by: John | June 22, 2009 at 11:11 AM