Well folks, the Daily S&P Futures chart hasnow violated the Wave 4 Channels (on Wednesday's bar) and today, has violated 140% retracement in the Oscillator. Thus, 2 out of 4 rules for the Type One trade are broken.
So what does this mean? Specifically, with the Wave 4 Channels being violated, it means that there is a less than 50% chance of making higher highs in a good 5th Wave.The Oscillator Pullback violation means that we have a 94% chance in being correct that this is NOT a true Wave 4. Yes...a 94% chance. The research done before Advanced GET was released way back in 1987 found that, during Wave 4, the 5, 35 Oscillator pulled back to zero (90%-140% retracement) 94% of the time. That means that only 6% of all Elliott Wave 4s have a retracement other than the 90-140. Unless this is one of that 6%, we are NOT in a true Wave 4.
That brings up an interesting question: If it's not a 4...WHAT IS IT?!
We'll discuss the possibilities of that in future posts.
Be prepared!
nate mccartney
It's the wave B of a big wave 4 pattern. Wave A has been finished @ 950
Posted by: sasa | July 10, 2009 at 11:33 AM
Interesting that my daily charts of cash market have not violated the wave 4 red channel and the oscillator is right at the 1.40 level. This could go down with a weak opening on Monday.
Posted by: Terry Felter | July 10, 2009 at 03:55 PM
I would go with Craig's view that $spx will bounce back in coming weeks, not sure if it will go upto 980(if it does , that would be a juicy short).This bounce is very unexpected at this time, which makes it very likely.
Posted by: John | July 11, 2009 at 05:03 AM
I hope this is not the big wave 5 on the weekly.
One possibility is that the weekly shows a wave 4 target of 1074 based on the elipse. On the daily, if wave 1 peaked on 3/19 as program currently shows, then, based on fib extension, the wave 3 should have reached 1019. This would be within a reasonable standard error of what the weekly elipse shows. The weekly wave 5 would likely take over at this point.
We also look like we are set up for a move higher based on the stochastic based on a higher low on the indicator.
One other point, I think someone did a fib time projection that calls for a market turn later this month, not now.
Posted by: Barry Miller | July 11, 2009 at 09:11 AM
You are all right on the money with the other possibilities. It is only one possible scenario that we are headed south right now. We don't know that for sure. While the BEST case scenario was for the Daily to trigger long cleanly, and send us up to 1000 or so, completing the Wave 5 and setting up a Type Two Sell, that just didn't happen. Thus, we need to explore other possibilities.
Posted by: Nate McCartney | July 13, 2009 at 07:30 AM
Hi Nate, what happened to the online Adget user group? Did it form? Thanks.
Posted by: david | July 16, 2009 at 07:18 AM